TAIEX台灣加權

TAIEX has pulled back roughly 2,500 points off its August highs, and with the index still trading north of 21x earnings on the back of a near-60% first-half run, I'm not chasing the quant's bullish read here. Add in a semiconductor-led selloff rattling chip stocks across the region and this looks more like a market catching its breath than one ready to push fresh highs — I'll sit neutral.

TAIEX just gave back a big chunk of its record surge, sliding roughly 1,500 points off the recent 46,000 peak — the 5-day window shows price sitting near the bottom of its own range even though the 60-day picture still looks fine. We're calling this neutral: the AI-earnings re-rating story isn't dead, but the whipsaw after an 8% rip is exactly the air-pocket risk we flagged, and it's too soon to say if this is healthy digestion or the start of something worse.

TAIEX just posted its biggest single-day point surge on record, and it's backed by a genuine AI-earnings re-rating, not just sentiment — forward profit growth near 22% gives the tech-heavy index real fuel. We're bullish, though after an 8% leap the tape is due to cool off, and chasing entries here carries real air-pocket risk.

TAIEX is clawing back toward record territory after a violent stretch — the index posted its largest-ever single-day points gain in early August, just weeks removed from one of its steepest drops on record when TSMC and MediaTek got dumped. I'll stick with the bullish lean since price is back near the top of its range, but this tape has shown it can air-pocket fast when chip sentiment turns, so don't mistake the recovery for calm.

Bullish, and today's 0.1% slip to 45,925.61 is exactly why I still prefer Taipei to Seoul. On a session when Korea ran another 2.4% and Tokyo made another high, the TAIEX simply declined to join in - it has climbed steadily for two weeks without ever going vertical, and that restraint is what an index looks like when it is being accumulated rather than chased. The catch is obvious: same chips, same buyers, so if Seoul's blow-off finally breaks Taipei will not be spared - it will just have less air underneath it to fall through.

Bullish, and for once Taipei is not the one carrying this. The TAIEX added about 1.2% to 45,985.14, another high for the recovery, on a session when Seoul ripped roughly 5.6% and Tokyo 2.2% - the whole Asian chip complex is being repriced now that a tame US July inflation print has put September rate cuts back on the table. Keep the scale honest: this is still recovered ground, well under the late-June peak, and an index that has run this straight for two weeks is one bad chip headline away from a violent air pocket.