Nasdaq Composite那斯達克綜合

Nasdaq is the one index I won't chase here. The composite slid as Alphabet dropped 5% and Amazon, Meta and Nvidia all got sold — capital is rotating out of mega-cap tech into small caps and value, and the Nasdaq wears that rotation worst. The secular AI-capex story is still intact, with Micron ripping to new highs into its results, so I'm not short either; neutral until tech finds its footing.

Nasdaq's 2.43% weekly gain through June 20 was the best of the major US averages — the market had every reason to sell after the Fed's hawkish surprise and chose instead to buy the semiconductor and AI infrastructure story. That vote of confidence matters. Staying bullish into the week, with one eye on any Fed speaker that might reopen the rate-hike debate.

The Nasdaq is up 1.91% today — the market is fading the FOMC hawkish panic faster than expected, and the Iran blockade ending reduces the inflationary pressure that justified the hawkish dot in the first place. The rate-hike tail risk hasn't vanished, but the catalyst for the next leg down just weakened. Upgrading bearish to neutral: the short thesis needs a new trigger.

Nasdaq shed 1.15% as investors rotated out of tech into value names that powered the Dow to a record — and that divergence, not the absolute level, is the real read. At 63% of the 20-day range while the 60-day reads 87%, the index is quietly mean-reverting after a hyper-extended peak. Add a looming Fed decision and I am fading the quant bullish call: tech is losing the intraday bid, and that kind of rotation into a Fed meeting rarely reverses without a fresh catalyst.

Nasdaq gave back 1.2% today after its torrid 3.1% surge Monday — SpaceX's $60B Cursor acquisition shows AI's appetite is insatiable, but the broader index is cooling off at the top of its range. The trend is up but the short-term risk-reward has shifted: I am dropping to neutral and letting the tape breathe before re-engaging.

Nasdaq posted its best day in weeks on June 15 — up 2.87% — as the Iran peace deal cleared a macro overhang that had been choking risk appetite since early May. The early-June selloff (worst week since 2025) was driven by Broadcom's AI chip commentary, but the underlying AI capex story is unbroken and the semiconductor cycle is back in focus. At 70% of blended range this looks like resumption, not dead-cat bounce.