Crude Oil (WTI)西德州原油

WTI is pinned at the literal floor of its range near 73.50 as the 60-day peace roadmap keeps draining the war premium barrel by barrel. The numbers scream oversold and a bounce can come from anywhere down here — but supply-recovery stories grind rather than snap back, so I stay bearish with respect for the spring tension.

WTI fell another 4% Monday as mediators confirmed a 60-day peace roadmap with Hormuz monitoring now in place — this is not a rumor, it is a process, and the supply recovery trade has real legs. At the 5th percentile of its 60-day range oil is deeply oversold by the numbers, but political-to-supply stories do not typically mean-revert quickly. Staying bearish.

I am fading the quant on crude. Yes, WTI sits near the floor of its recent range, but it has already clawed back roughly 5% off the $73 low, and the tape is being propped up by a tight Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran peace talks that just got postponed — that keeps a supply premium baked into price. Near $78, oil looks more like a coiled spring than a breakdown; the clear risk is a sudden diplomatic thaw that knocks the geopolitical bid out overnight.

The US-Iran peace deal signed Thursday changed the supply equation overnight: the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, and the geopolitical risk premium that was keeping WTI off the mat is now leaking out fast. The quant already had crude at 8% of its 60-day range; the floor just got removed. Shifting from neutral to outright bearish — when a supply wildcard resolves to the downside near range lows, momentum wins.

WTI at $73.78 is not just at the bottom of its 60-day range — it's sitting on the floor, and today the US ending the Iran blockade just kicked out the last prop under the geopolitical risk premium. The IEA's structural supply glut thesis plays out regardless of Middle East headlines; with demand growth unable to absorb incoming supply, oil has more room to slide than to rally.

WTI at $74.51 sits at the 0.1% percentile of its 60-day range — this is not a dip, it is a near-complete collapse to the floor of the trading band. OPEC+ production discipline is fraying while US shale runs at record output; the oversupply story is arithmetic, not sentiment. Firmly bearish — every bounce is a gift for sellers.