CSI 300滬深 300

The CSI 300 gave back about 1% to 4,965, a mild exhale after pressing the 98th percentile — markup trends are allowed to breathe. I stay bullish on the mainland tape, but the screaming divergence with a Hang Seng now at the absolute floor of its range can't last forever; either Hong Kong catches up or Shanghai's leadership eventually wobbles.

CSI 300 at the 98th percentile of its blended range near 5,017 is as stretched as it gets — this is a market in markup mode, not a setup for a fade. I respect the breakout and stay bullish, while knowing China has a long tradition of arriving late and correcting fast; the further it stretches, the shorter the leash.

CSI 300 at 4,954 is staring down the 5,000 round number going into Monday — and this week's macro backdrop is cleaner for China than feared: the Iran deal is irrelevant to Beijing's AI buildout, lower oil benefits the manufacturing complex, and the domestic institutional base hasn't cracked. Staying bullish; the 5,000 print will attract profit-taking before a clean break, not before.

CSI 300 at 77% of its blended range is holding near the top while Hang Seng languishes at 15% — a divergence that tells you the domestic, policy-driven bid is doing the real work here. Beijing's stimulus posture hasn't softened and the onshore momentum is genuine. Bullish, but Hang Seng's underperformance is the warning light; if that crack spreads, no A-share rally stays clean.

CSI 300 is the one corner of China that is actually working right now — domestic institutional buying is lifting blue chips to levels not seen since early 2022, and the 75% range score reflects genuine price momentum without being dangerously extended. Bullish on mainland even as Hong Kong stays stuck. Domestic flows do not lie.

China's CSI 300 holds its constructive structure at 70% of blended range, and the US-Iran peace deal shifts the macro dial in Beijing's favour — lower commodity input costs and easing global risk aversion both help. Domestic policy support hasn't evaporated, and A-shares still trade at a discount to global peers on any reasonable multiple. The bull thesis remains intact, though capital-flow reversals between Hong Kong and Shanghai warrant watching.