Nikkei 225日經 225

Bearish. The Nikkei's 1.2% pop back above 66,000 didn't stick - it's pulled back to 65,677, right in the middle of its own range, as the US 30-year yield presses toward a near two-decade high and drags global risk sentiment down with it. I'd rather see it clear 66k cleanly before trusting the bounce.

Nikkei is stuck in the middle of its range too, still digesting a Q2 GDP miss on soft domestic demand even as exports held up. Nothing here argues strongly for either side, so I'm staying neutral rather than forcing a lean.

Overriding the neutral quant call — Nikkei fell alongside KOSPI today as the same chip-sector selloff hitting Samsung and SK Hynix dragged down SoftBank and other Japanese tech names. When the trigger is this clear and this fresh, I'd rather call the direction than sit on a range-position score that hasn't caught up yet.

Nikkei is grinding toward record territory near 69,000, powered by broad tech and real-estate strength — the third straight push higher. The wildcard: the BOJ is reportedly weighing a rate hike as soon as September, and a firmer yen could take some wind out of exporters' sails, but for now the trend still points up.

Bullish, and a pullback to 68,654.69 doesn't break the trend I've been riding — this index is giving back roughly 1% of a move that took it up over 8% inside two weeks, exactly the kind of digestion a vertical run needs. The quant score barely dented (72%), and my own line in the sand is still nearly 1,700 points below current price. I'd only turn if 67,000 goes; until then, a red day here reads as a pause, not a reversal.

Bullish, and the fact that I am bearish Seoul in the same breath is the whole point. Tokyo added about 1.4% to 69,442.55, another high for this move, with the broad TOPIX in record territory and chip names leading - the same trade as Korea, in a far less vertical version. Overseas money now treats Japan, Korea and Taiwan as one AI supply chain, so the honest risk is that Tokyo simply imports the correction whenever Seoul finally takes one. Below 67,000 I would stop arguing.