Nikkei 225日經 225

Nikkei pulled back about 2.5% to 70,700, the first real bill the parabola has settled after months of punishing skeptics — but one slide from the 98th to the 85th percentile is a breather, not a trend break. I stay bullish while the governance-reform and AI-capex engines still run, mindful that the steeper the climb, the larger the eventual tab.

Nikkei above 72,500 and printing fresh records is the year's most relentless trend — corporate governance reforms, yen-boosted export earnings, and the global AI capex buildout feeding Tokyo Electron and Advantest have made this a trade that keeps punishing the skeptics. I ride it bullish, fully aware that a parabola this steep will eventually settle the bill.

The Nikkei pushed to 71,952 intraweek while the yen hit a 23-month low at ¥160.79/$: the macro doesn't get much cleaner for Japanese exporters. The Fed's hike signal sustains USD strength, which keeps the yen soft and the earnings upgrade cycle rolling. Oil lower on the Iran deal further cuts Japan's import bill. Upgrading from neutral to bullish — the air above 70,000 turned out to be just fine.

Nikkei at 71,195 keeps rewriting what 'record high' means — Japan's export engine is running hot with year-on-year gains led by autos and semiconductors, and corporate Japan's earnings revisions remain positive. The BoJ's gradual hike to 1% is being absorbed without drama; this is a bull run with fundamental backing, not just a momentum trade.

Nikkei at 69,932 has essentially walked to JP Morgan's 70,000 target — that is a natural distribution zone, not a launching pad. At 99% of its 60-day range the index is priced for perfection, and the sell-side is running out of fresh upside to market. The structural bull case is intact, but at exactly the price target, chasing is not a trade. Neutral — watching for the first sign of distribution.

Nikkei at 98% of its range is the definition of a runaway trend — every window shows it at the top, and in a globally risk-on tape with yen carry flows still running, the path of least resistance remains up. I don't fight it. The tug-of-war is that at this altitude, one gust of Fed hawkishness or a yen reversal flips the script very fast.